Western Forest Economists 41st Meeting, May 1- 3, 2006  

 

            Day 1

 

Monday, May 1, 2006           

 

7:30 p.m. Fluid Session

 

Bruce Lippke. Investing in the avoidance of future costs by reducing fire risks: Do economists not get it?

           

            Day 2

 

Tuesday, May 2, 2006

           

7:00 a.m. to 8:30 a.m.  Breakfast        

8:30 a.m. to 10 a.m.  General Session

 

Moderator: Thomas Maness

 

Olaf Schwab, PhD Candidate, Faculty of Forestry, UBC.  Timber supply shocks: economic impacts and policy formulation

Hamish Kerr, Vice President Strategic Planning and Forest Policy, TimberWest Forest Corp.  The timberland business: how does B.C. participate?

 

Harry Nelson, Research Associate, Forest Economics and Policy Analysis Unit, UBC.  Assessing BC's new tenure policies: will they achieve their goals?

 

10:00 a.m. to 10:30 a.m. Break

10:30 a.m. to 12:00 p.m. 3 Concurrent Technical Sessions

 

1.      Forest Ownership Changes and Implications

 

Moderator: Ralph Alig

 

Jim Stevens, Campbell Group, Portland, Oregon.  Does timberland ownership change mean land use change?  A TIMO perspective 

 

Mike Clutter, University of Georgia, Athens.  Industrial ownership of timberland:  recent trends and possible futures

 

Bret Vicary, James W. Sewall Company, Old Town, ME.  The role of conservation easements and wood supply agreements in shaping landscape change

 

Tony Cascio, University of Georgia, Athens.  Tools for assessing risk and asset prominence within a portfolio of timberland investments

 

2.      Biomass/Biofuels/Bioenergy

 

Moderator: Linc Cannon

 

Roger Lord, Mason, Bruce and Girard Inc, Portland OR.  Forest biomass to energy in Oregon: the stars are aligned

 

Bruce Lippke, University of Washington.  Long-lived products and mill biofuels trump other bioenergy uses

 

Ken Skog, USFS Forest Products Lab, Madison WI.  Evaluation of silvicultural treatments and biomass to reduce fire hazard in Western states

 

Allen Brackley. Biomass opportunities for Alaska: Utilizing wildland-urban interface clearings in interior Alaska

 

 

3.      Forest Management Modeling

 

Moderator: Doug Brodie

 

EunHo Im, Oregon State University.  The effects of additionality and product leakage on the cost-effectiveness of forest carbon subsidy programs

 

Mo Zhou, University of Wisconsin-Madison.  Forest management analysis using Markov chain modeling

 

Jingjing Liang, USFS Rocky Mt Research Station, Missoula MT.  Bootstrap simulation of forest management in Pacific Northwest Douglas-fir forests

 

 

12:00 p.m. to 1:30 p.m. Lunch with Speaker

 

David New, Ecotrust Forest Management, Inc. An overview of recent timberlands sales and acquisitions and the potential impact on long term forest management

 

1:30 p.m. to 3:00 pm   3 Concurrent Technical Sessions

 

1.      Changes in Ownership, Parcelization, Housing Density, and Migration

 

Moderator: Ralph Alig

 

Brett Butler, USDA Forest Service, Northern Station, Newtown Square, PA. Forest ownership changes and parcelization: a national perspective

 

Roger Hammer, University of Wisconsin, Madison.  Hierarchical Bayesian housing backcasts and forecasts, 1940-2030: stochastic estimation of past and future sprawl

 

Sue Stewart, USDA Forest Service, Northern Station, Evanston, IL.  The emerging age structure of U.S. migration, 1950-2000:  where did they come from, where did they go?

 

Eric White, USDA Forest Service, PNW Station, Corvallis, OR.  Forests on the edge:  The case of Northwest Washington

 

2.      Wood Supply and Demand Issues

 

Moderator: Darius Adams

 

Chuck Keeganand Jason Brandt, University of Montana, Missoula MT.  Timber milling capacity in the western US

 

J. Kent Barr, University of Washington.  Attributes of Washington Dept. of Natural Resources timber sales in western Washington

 

Hideaki Kubota, University of Washington. Projections of world-wide pulp production

 

Linc Cannon, Oregon Forest Industries Council. A comparison of management and timber production between NW State and county forestlands in Oregon

 

3.      Contemporary Management Paradigms

 

Moderator: Bill White

 

Thomas Rojas, USFS PNW Research Syation, Sitka AK. Using cluster analysis to assess forest-based community economic development

 

Guy Robertson, USDA Forest Service Washington Office. A Resource Planning Act update for 2005

 

Tyler DesRoches, Pacific Forestry Centre, Canadian FS, Victoria BC. Linking forests and economic well-being: a four-quadrant approach

 

Tom Hobby, Royal Roads University, Victoria BC.  Economic analysis of BC nonwood forest products

           

3:00 p.m. to 3:30 p.m. Break  

3:30 p.m. to 5:00 p.m. 3 Concurrent Technical Sessions

 

1.      Development Pressures on Forests:  Measures and Implications

 

Moderator: Ralph Alig

 

Susan Stein and Sara Comas, USDA FS, State and Private Forestry, WO. “Forests on the Edge" project:  an update on the national study

 

Gary Lettman, OR Dept. of Forestry, Salem, OR. Ballot Measure 37:  The end of land use planning on forest land in Oregon?

 

Jeff Kline, USFS, PNW Research Station, Corvallis OR. Development effects in eastern Oregon forests

 

2.      Fire

 

Moderator: Geoffrey Donovan

 

Keith Stockman, USDA FS Northern Region, Missoula MT. Modeling home survival on the wildland-urban interface

 

Evan Hjerpe, Northern Arizona University. Regional economic impacts of National Forest fuels reduction programs in the Southwest

 

Jeffrey Comnick, Bruce Lippke, Larry Mason. Invest in thinnings and carbon stored in products while you can to avoid costs from fires

 

Mariam Lankoande, Washington DNR. Incentives for Ex Ante wildfire risk mitigation: The relationship between contingent wildfire insurance and fuel management subsidies

 

3.      Socio-economic research in western North America

 

Moderator: Keith Blatner

 

Bill White, Canadian FS, Edmonton AB. Bugs and people: social science studies and the Mt. pine beetle outbreak

 

Sinclair Tedder, BC Ministry of Forests.  Property rights and allocation of common pool resources: nontimber forest products on Crown lands in B.C.

 

Mike Retzlaff, USFS Rocky Mt Region. Using national visitor use monitoring data for forest planning

 

Kevin Zobrist and Bruce Lippke, University of Washington. Economic impacts of stream typing rules on different ownership classes

 

5:30 p.m. to 8 p.m. Posters, Social & Barbeque          

8 p.m. 2 Concurrent Fluid Sessions

 

Linc Cannon, Oregon Forest Industry Council. Biomass opportunities

 

Jingjing Liang.  WestPro Plus: a computer simulation demonstration

 

            Day 3

 

Wednesday, May 3, 2006

 

7:00 a.m. to 8:30 a.m.  Breakfast        

8:30 a.m. to 10 a.m.  General Session

 

Forest Planning in Western States: How does Legislation affect Questions, Analysis and Modeling?

 

            Moderator: Mark Rasmussen

 

Pam Overhulser, OR Dept. of Forestry. Oregon's State forests - an approach to policy analysis under complex demands

 

Paul Engleman, MT DNRC. Estimating the long term sustained yield in Montana

 

Angus Brodie, WA DNR.  Strategic forest planning for public trusts in Washington State: the search for a balance of habitat conservation, revenues, and social acceptance

 

10:00 a.m. to 10:30 a.m. Break          

10:30 a.m. to 12:00 p.m. 3 Concurrent Technical Sessions

 

1.      Forest Planning-Related Modeling

 

Moderator: Eric White

 

James Hill, Economic Modeling Specialists, Inc. Introducing the EMSI economic impact model

 

Karl R. Walters and Sean J. Canavan, FORSight Resources, LLC, Vancouver WA. Error propagation in forest planning models

 

Gregory S. Alward, USDA Forest Service, Fort Collins CO. Introducing IMPLAN Multiregional Modeling

 

Allen Brackley, USDA FS PNW Research Station, Sitka AK. Demand projections for National Forest timber

 

2.      Private Forestland Issues

 

Moderator: Gary Lettman

 

Bill Schuette, OR Dept of Revenue. Valuing Oregon's forestland for taxation

 

Ted Heltvoigt, Oregon State University. Technical change and productivity growth in the Northwest sawmill industry

 

Darius Adams, Oregon State University. A new look at private timber supply in the Douglas-fir region

 

3.      Management and Policy Issues

 

Moderator: Sinclair Tedder

 

Jay Anderson and Martin Luckert, University of Alberta. Can hybrid poplar save industrial forestry in Canada's boreal forest?

 

Lili Sun, Canadian FS Pacific Forestry Centre. An international comparative analysis of Canada's forest sector tax competitiveness

 

Justina Harris, University of Washington. Ownership patterns for riparian functions: economic implications for protection strategies

 

12:00 p.m. Lunch, Business Meeting